Reumo
This study develops an econometric model to assess the risk of illegal mining activities in Brazil's Caatinga biome, integrating rational choice and routine activity theories. The model analyzes illegal mining under three dimensions: governance efficacy, mineral desirability, and geospatial characteristics. The methodology uses generalized linear regression to analyze a grid composed of 10km² cells encompassing data aggregated over an eleven-year period (2010-2020) from sources such as National Mining Agency (ANM), Geological Survey of Brazil (CPRM), Federal Police, Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources (IBAMA), Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), Mapbiomas, and Open Street Maps. Key findings indicate a notable gap between current governance frameworks and their ability to deter illegal mining, as traditional governance approaches like law enforcement and regulatory fines seem to be ineffective. Instead, the presence of legal mining operations is found to significantly increase the likelihood of illegal activities, indicating that legal mining areas may inadvertently encourage illicit endeavors. This research contributes to environmental criminology by challenging the effectiveness of traditional governance mechanisms in deterring environmental crimes. It underscores the necessity of shifting from conventional enforcement models to more inclusive and interconnected governance approaches. Additionally, the study highlights the importance of considering the economic attractiveness of minerals and the spatial dynamics of legal mining in devising comprehensive policy measures for the prevention of mining-related crimes.